An Imperfect Equilibrium

The Nash equilibrium is a kind of optimal strategy for games involving two or more players. If there is a set of strategies for a game with the property that no player can benefit by changing his strategy while the other players keep their strategies unchanged, then that set of strategies and the corresponding payoffs constitute a Nash equilibrium. Players will choose the strategies that form the equilibrium if it is played among completely rational players ...

And therein lies the rub ... (From Wikipedia)

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An Imperfect Equilibrium

And now for some really big news ... Tuesday, May 31, 2005 6:06 PM
I apologize for my utter lack of blogging the last few weeks; however, I've been working on a much more important project:
 
 
Kristin Feola
AP Scholar
Texas Scholar
National Honor Society
Who's Who in American High School Students
Off to the IU school of journalism in the fall.
 
I'll get back on the blogging when I catch my breath.
 
cjf
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The Critical Rapid Response Team Tuesday, May 10, 2005 11:58 PM
Please give your visceral reaction to this quote:

"We need to establish a system for evaluating public attacks on Microsoft's work and determining whether and how to respond," said Bill Gates.  "We strongly believe it is no longer sufficient to argue reflexively that our work speaks for itself. In today's media environment, such a minimal response damages our credibility.  We need to be more assertive about explaining ourselves - our decisions, our methods, our values, how we operate," Gates said, acknowledging that "there are those who love to hate Microsoft"' and suggesting a focus instead on people who do not have "fixed" opinions about the software giant. A parallel goal of this strategy, Gates said, was to assure coders "that they will be defended when they are subjected to unfair attack." The defense should be led by coders from the software product teams, he said, "with support and advice from our corporate communications, marketing and legal departments."

Mad? Furious? Shocked? Outraged?

Can't believe Gates could be so stupid?

Does this only confirm what you already know -- that only Microsoft could be so arrogant that it could talk about its customers this way?

Except, of course, I'm lying.

Gates would never be that stupid.

I guess I'm not lying per se -- all I did was substitute "Bill Gates" and "Microsoft" for the names of the company that actually put out the following statement on a committee report designed to restore the company's credibility:

"10. Establish a system for evaluating public attacks on The Time's work and determining whether and how to respond.

"We strongly believe it is no longer sufficient to argue reflexively that our work speaks for itself,"  the report stated. "In today's media environment, such a minimal response damages our credibility," it added. As a result, the committee said, the newsroom should develop a strategy for evaluating public attacks on The Times and determining whether and how to respond to them. "We need to be more assertive about explaining ourselves - our decisions, our methods, our values, how we operate," the committee said, acknowledging that "there are those who love to hate The Times"' and suggesting a focus instead on people who do not have "fixed" opinions about the paper. A parallel goal of this strategy, the committee said, was to assure reporters "that they will be defended when they are subjected to unfair attack." The defense should be led by journalists in the newsroom, the report said, "with support and advice from our corporate communications, marketing and legal departments."
 
"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist." That's a quote from that most excellent movie, The Usual Suspects.
 
The worst trick journalists ever pulled was convincing themselves that they weren't in business.  And they pulled it on themselves.
 
There's plenty of time to talk about the strangeness that seems to pass almost unremarked: We could discuss the Houston Chronicle's decision to become an ad agent for Google, according to The New York Times. Can you imagine, say, Oracle becoming a sales agent for Microsoft's SQL server?
 
There's too much of that stuff to go into, frankly: just thinking about it exhausts me.
 
And anyway, it misses the point:
 
What can you say about an industry that has so lost its way that its leading lights talk about their customer this way?  What can you say about an industry that doesn't know its customers are customers -- because its practitioners don't think they are in business?

Next time -- it will be a few days while I'm on the road -- we'll talk about bloggers forming co-ops, and other new types of publications. 
 
cjf
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Not with a bang but a whimper Friday, May 06, 2005 12:12 AM
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
 TS Eliot, The Hollow Men
 
I've been reading Shutterbug Magazine since I started shooting -- since I was a teenager, in other words.  The latest issue showed up the other day; the annual extravaganza covering the Photo Marketing Association's annual camera show.
 
The issue is always divided into sections: Large Format Cameras, Medium Format Cameras, and so forth.  This issue had something new: the section on 35mm SLRs simply said that for the first time in the history of the PMA, not a single 35mm SLR was introduced.
 
But if you go back into Shutterbug's archives, you'll see that as late as three years ago the magazine was still running "Should you go digital?" articles, and the PMA issue was so jammed with 35mm SLRs that coverage was limited to one entry per manufacturer.
 
But this is the way the revolution ends.  A decade after all the "Will digital kill film?" angry debates, things just fade with hardly a murmer.  Meanwhile, the classic camera companies are dying.  Contax cameras have been discontinued.  And PMA was rife with rumors that Leica had lost its line of credit, and whether that would mean the end of the company that invented 35mm.
 
Meanwhile, a decade after all of the sturm und drang over whether new media would mean the end of newspapers, the floors are quietly being covered in blood:
 
* Newspapers are so battered by search advertising that some have taken to acting as ad agents for their competition in an attempt to pick up some revenue, according to = The New York Times.
 
* There was a small flurry of articles on yet another round of depressing circulation figures.  The bottom line: a 1.9 percent drop over the last six months, continuing a steady decline since 1987.  The  Wall Street Journal had a pretty nice analysis.
 
* Meanwhile, Internet advertising in 2004  surpassed the highs from the dot com boom, and is expected to grow this year by an additional third -- mostly at the expense of traditional media.
 
* Finally, take a look at  Morgan Stanley's overview of the advertising market.  Be sure to have a soft place to fall down when you look at the slides comparing things like EBay vs. all US Newspaper Classifieds.
 
Do a little reading, and we'll talk about What It All Means -- hopefully tomorrow.
 
c
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Ben Franklin has always been my hero Thursday, April 28, 2005 1:25 AM

Ben Franklin has always been my hero.  You know the story: Writer. Inventor. Diplomat.  Pretty much founded a country.  Et Cetera.

Franklin was always pretty much a one-man band.  If you were a lesser man - oh, say, John Adams or Thomas Jefferson - you might find reason to complain that Franklin would do stuff like negotiate the birth of a nation with France without ever fully letting you in on what was going on.

As a newspaper and almanac publisher, Franklin was even better - or worse, depending on your point of view.  It would be interesting to run some of the great man's antics - living up a dead edition by writing letters to the editor under pseudonyms, for example - past, say, the ethics doyens at the Society of Professional Journalists.

Be that as it may, here's the relevant point:  You're not Ben Franklin.  (Neither am I, natch.)

In the centuries since Franklin gave up the publishing business to go into diplomacy and science, newspapers evolved from one-man bands into complex organizations.  It stands to reason, if you think about it.  First, few people are polymaths, never mind one on the scale of Franklin - did you know that he invented a musical instrument that had pieces composed for it by both Mozart and Beethoven?

Second … doesn't it just sound exhausting?

Third, it seems to stand to reason that in most cases a staff will be stronger than an individual: more heads should equal more talent and more ideas.

So here's a question.  Let's say, for the sake of the discussion, that the first rush of blogging is over.  If so, what comes next?

That's one of the things I'm planning to explore here in the coming weeks.  This again is part of the conversation the great Dean Brown and I have been having for the last few months.

So here's a thought: If the natural progression for newspapers was from single proprietor to staff-driven publications, won't the next phase be group blogs?  There are already a few interesting ones out there …

More on that soon.

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Blogging's ugly puberty Friday, April 22, 2005 1:25 AM

I can't remember exactly when I started reading blogs, but it was before they were called that. I started reading Andrew Sullivan's Daily Dish in 2002, I think.

But I'm sure when I stopped reading almost all of the ones mentioned in the media.  That was October of 2004, several weeks before the presidential election.  And it ended where it started, with Sullivan.

A some point Sullivan -- and almost all the rest of the political blogs now so discussed and feared in the "Main Stream Media" -- became so shrill, so predictable ...

So tiresome.

That I just stopped.  Oddly enough, I never really restarted, at least with those.  These days the only "big" blog I read regularly is InstaPundit, which is light and largely free of invective and pointed commentary.

I still read a lot of blogs, though, but they tend not to be what are thought of blogs in the current discussions.  So no Sullivan or Power Line or Josh Marshall.  I still read InstaPundit, but other than that, it's mostly what I call expert blogs -- smaller traffic blogs that specialize deeply in one area, and are often written by professional practicioners.

One of my favorites, for example, is The Luminous Landscape, a wonderful blog that focuses on landscape photography.

Which brings me to several points.  Over the next few weeks I'll be writing and discussing -- come on, click on those comment links! -- about how the blogosphere is maturing, and starting to develop in new and interesting ways.

And I won't be linking for the sake of linking.  One of the things I'm thinking about is that the blogosphere is dividing into different species.  I think that An Imperfect Equilibrium will be more about thinking, and essays, and conversations in the comments, and less about delivering a big bag o links every day.  But more about that as we go through this emerging ecosystem.

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Back in the saddle again Tuesday, April 19, 2005 10:34 PM

I had been planning to get going with the blog full blast yesterday, but fate intervened.

Did my morning meeting, and started on my email when I lost my DSL: Vonage, Net access, everything. Spent several hours rebooting, tracing wires, etc.

Finally called Verizon to see if they could trace the line. After 10 transfers and 20 minutes on various types of hold and inputting my phone number every six seconds got to the right line, on hold, which played the following message: Verizon customers in Southern California and North Texas are currently unable to reach the Internet while we perform maintenance.

So I went to the range and hit golfballs for the rest of the afternoon, then spent the evening rebooting, restoring the cabling.

So let's try again, shall we?

First, as I mentioned last week, it should be obvious now why I've been incommunicado for the last couple of months -- we shipped askSam 6 last week, almost 20 years to the day after the original askSam shipped.  I apologize for the lack of blogging, returning phone calls, returning emails, actually turning my IM on, etc.  If I owe you a call/email/IM ... I'm working on it, and hope to get caught up over the next week or so.

While I've been less than communicative, I have been thinking a lot about blogging, partly for this blog, and partly for a class I'm teaching in the fall at IUPUI.  I'm starting to think about the different types and forms of blogs, and have had several long conversations on this with Dean Brown.  And that's where I'd like to start ... tomorrow: If blogging is a new part of the media ecosystem, must not there be more than one type of inhabitant?

And wouldn't Marshall McLuhan enjoy this?

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Now it can be told ... Wednesday, April 13, 2005 6:29 PM

what I've been up to for the last few months. Here's what Phil and I and the crew have been working on. Go and take a look: http://www.asksam.com/

After I get some rest, blogging will go back to where it was last year, complete with semi-frequent essays. Or so I say, anyway.

Thanks for your patience.

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Sorry! Friday, March 18, 2005 1:23 AM

Sorry about the light -- ok, complete lack -- of blogging the last week. But we're through the tunnel, and in a few days I'll be able to tell you all about it. It's good news! Blogging will remain ... sporadic ... for a few more days, though: I'll be at a convention, doing the wall-to-wall meeting thing.  Including Saturday and Sunday. Sigh.

Meanwhile, a few things to think about:

My (and James Jennings) new patent.  It's about as tedious as you'd expect.

A new study showing  that 70 percent of blog readers -- that's you! -- are influentials.

To put the blogosphere's influentials density in context, consider that the WashingtonPost.com likes to brag that 34% of its readers are influentials. (See bottom of page 4 on this PDF.)

Which brings me to one of the very many things that have piled up while I've been off doing ... stuff, Which Will Be Revealed Ever So Soon: Apparently, I'm teaching a class on blogging next semester on blogging at IUPUI for Dean James "I'm the Dean, Not The GodFather Of Soul" Brown.  And I have to put together a textbook/reading list by next month.

I have a couple of thoughts here.  First, almost everything about the mass media is inappropriate.  Blogs are not measured in terms of tonnage, or the number that they reach; they work in terms of who they reach, and how that reach spreads through those people's secondary and tertiary networks.

So I'm thinking of three books: One I'm pretty certain on.  One I'm thinking on, but could turn fickle at any moment.  And I fear I have a plethora of candidates for the third, and am having trouble deciding.  Here they are:

I'm pretty certain I want to use Gladwell's The Tipping Point. Beyond the titular discussion, there is a series of theories about the types of people who spread information -- people who are experts in a narrow area, people who are experts on what people are experts on which topics, and so forth.  I think that as the blogosphere matures many of these same patterns will emerge.

The second book is Stephenson's The Diamond Age. This has a fascinating discussion of information flow, with the lowest classes getting totally personalized news, and the 100 most important people in government receiving a newspaper printed on a hand-cranked letter press to ensure their having a common view of the world. But I'm not sure if that is worth the whole book, or if it is just one discussion.

Finally, I generally assign a Melissa Scott book to any new media class because Melissa is that good and because ... well, just because.  I'm thinking of assigning Trouble and her friends, because it's a great book, and because of the discussion of the malleability of identity online.  In the past, I've almost always assigned  Night Sky Mine, because it is good, and beautiful, and has the most unengineering discussion of user interfaces I've ever encountered. (Note to self: make programmers read this; add it to their project plans.)

Then, of course, there is  The Jazz.  This is from the Amazon review:

Misinformation, PR, disinformation, rumors, spinning, lies--in the near future, the art of untruth has evolved into the jazz: virtual-reality Internet theatre, an entertainment for the cognoscenti and a source of pain and scandal for those who believe what they see, read, or experience. Tin Lizzy has escaped her troubled criminal adolescence to become one of the premiere design programmers of the jazz. But when she agrees to design the back-tech for a teenage boy's brilliant jazz scenario, she discovers too late that Keyz created his jazz with a sophisticated program stolen from a Hollywood studio. Now Lizzy is a criminal again, a desperate fugitive on the run with Keyz through the dangerous underground of the 21st century, fleeing cops, bounty hunters, studio detectives, and a powerful, ruthless CEO who has a secret to preserve, and boundless resources and vindictiveness.

So, here are my thoughts for the moment:

Maybe 3 is too small a number! But, of course, given the amount of writing and such that I'll require ...

Maybe some thoughts/comments will come my way from you, gentle readers!

Maybe I should add Melissa to the blog mailing list? Hmmm, why haven't I done that already? All the rest of the Friends of Feola are being regularly tortured ... Maybe Melissa will have a suggestion!

-30-

cjf

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Here is my impression of Edward R. Murrow--with 15" needles thrust though both eyes Wednesday, March 02, 2005 6:41 PM

The late, great Michael O'Donoghue used to do a rather unusual impression of Elvis:

I was home watching television the other afternoon and I happened to catch Spinout, a great Presley movie with an incredible cast -- Nancy Sinatra, Bill Bixby. I was watching this movie and a funny thought occurred to me. I thought, what if someone took steel needles, say, mm, fifteen, eighteen inches long and plunged them, plunged them into Elvis Presley's ... eyes. What would his reaction be? We can only guess ... but I think it might go something like this... (turns his back to the camera, pulls up shirt collar over his neck, removes eyeglasses and pockets them, then spins quickly, his right hand clutched to his eyes, screaming, shrieking at the top of his lungs. He staggers, collapses to the floor, tries to get up. Laughter and applause as O'Donoghue falls off stage and rolls into audience.)

Now that is fairly tasteless.  It is also a fair summary of how I feel listening to the majority of the "whither the media" discussions.

I met someone recently who crossed over into media companies after a long and healthy career in other industries.  We got into a discussion where I expressed the rather novel -- to him -- opinion that business arguments don't work on newsroom folks because a large percentage find the very idea that they are in a business to be offensive.

Today, a friend pointed me to a memo on Poynter that pretty well summed it up:

Ever since the Chandler Family plucked Mark Willes from General Foods, placing him at the helm of Times Mirror with a mandate to destroy the institutions in ways that would boost dividends, journalism has suffered at Newsday. The pain of the last year actually began a decade ago: the sad arc of greed has finally hit bottom. The leaders of Times Mirror and Tribune have proven to be mirrors of a general trend in the media world: They serve their stockholders first, Wall St. second and somewhere far down the list comes service to newspaper readerships. In 1996 I personally confronted Willes on that point, and he publicly confirmed that the new regime was one in which even the number of newspapers sold was irrelevant, so long as stock returns continued to rise.

That's from Laurie Garrett's memo detailing why she is leaving Newsday. Leaving aside the gratuitously silly idea that the owners of a company want to destroy it -- and all their money -- just to annoy journalists, take a look at that last sentance.  Does anyone think that makes sense? Especially now, after a year or so of circulation scandals -- at Newsday and elsewhere -- and weaking of ABC rules to include things like bulk delivery?  If we drop the price of the paper to a penny a week, will circulation go up? Does ANYONE think that makes sense?

Never mind the minor detail that circulation -- and therefore news -- do not pay for the newspaper in and of themselves.  Advertising does, especially classifieds.  And as Pennysavers and Auto Traders everywhere have shown, it is possible to have a successful newspaper with classifieds, and no news.

No one has shown a successful newspaper that has news, and no advertising, though.

Meanwhile, let's take a look at the reality based part of our show.  This is from Craig's List:

And then there's this, from the same link:

craigslist monster careerbuilder hotjobs
NYC $25 $335 $269 $275
LA $25 $335 $269 $275
SF $75 $335 $269 $275
Boston $0 $335 $269 $275
Chicago $0 $335 $269 $275
Seattle $0 $335 $269 $275
Denver $0 $335 $269 $275
Miami $0 $335 $269 $275
Dallas $0 $335 $269 $275
Phoenix $0 $335 $269 $275
Wash DC $0 $335 $269 $275
Phila $0 $335 $269 $275
Atlanta $0 $335 $269 $275
Detroit $0 $335 $269 $275

Do ya feel the needles?

cjf

ps: More on this in a bit -- I'm in a time crunch tonight.

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3 things you never thought you'd see in one sentance: Chuck D, amicus brief, SCOTUS Tuesday, March 01, 2005 3:59 PM

This just in from the Washington Post:

A prominent group of musicians and artists, breaking with colleagues and the major entertainment studios, is urging the Supreme Court not to hold online file-sharing services responsible for the acts of users who illegally trade songs, movies and software.

The group, which includes representatives of Steve Winwood, rapper Chuck D and the band Heart, said in court papers to be filed today that it condemns the stealing of copyrighted works. But it argues that popular services such as Grokster, Kazaa and others also provide a legal and critical alternative for artists to distribute their material.

Not that it surprises me that this is Chuck D's position.  He's been pretty consistant on this for a long time, just in a different venue.  Here's the first verse of "Caught! Can I get a witness?" from the 1988 Public Enemy album It takes a nation of millions to hold us back:

Caught, now in court 'cause I stole a beat
This is a sampling sport
But I'm giving it a new name
What you hear is mine
P.E. you know the time
Now, what in the heaven does a jury know about hell
If I took it, but but they just look at me
Like, Hey I'm on a mission
I'm talkin' 'bout conditions
Ain't right sittin' like dynamite
Gonna blow you up and it just might
Blow up the bench and
Judge, the courtroom plus I gotta mention
This court is dismissed when I grab the mike
Yo Flave...What is this?

Now if we can just get a picture of Sandra Day O'Conner wearing Flave's clock necklace ... I will be a happy man.

On a similar note, ExtremeTech notes that the RIAA et al theory that everyone is a copyright criminal until they can prove otherwise is not doing so well in court. A three-judge panel has just overruled the FCC's broadcast flag requirements, ruling that the FCC's mandate to oversee broadcasters does not give it the right to oversee broadcastees. The flag is a nasty piece of work that protects copyright not only from "stealing" -- like watching it on a portable during a trip -- but "misuse" -- like fastforwarding through the ads.

Next thing you know they're going to want your fridge and bathroom to lock themselves during commercial breaks.

cjf

 

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