Section[ PART I - Strategic Overview
Title[ OUR ENEMIES AND THEIR GOALS
OUR ENEMIES AND THEIR GOALS
-- The enemy in Iraq is a combination of rejectionists, Saddamists, and terrorists affiliated with or
inspired by Al Qaida. These three groups share a common opposition to the elected Iraqi
government and to the presence of Coalition forces, but otherwise have separate and to some
extent incompatible goals.
- Rejectionists are the largest group. They are largely Sunni Arabs who have not embraced the
shift from Saddam Hussein's Iraq to a democratically governed state. Not all Sunni Arabs fall
into this category. But those that do are against a new Iraq in which they are no longer the
privileged elite. Most of these rejectionists opposed the new constitution, but many in their
ranks are recognizing that opting out of the democratic process has hurt their interests.
> We judge that over time many in this group will increasingly support a democratic Iraq
provided that the federal government protects minority rights and the legitimate interests of
all communities.
- Saddamists and former regime loyalists harbor dreams of reestablishing a Ba'athist
dictatorship and have played a lead role in fomenting wider sentiment against the Iraqi
government and the Coalition.
> We judge that few from this group can be won over to support a democratic Iraq, but that
this group can be marginalized to the point where it can and will be defeated by Iraqi
forces.
- Terrorists affiliated with or inspired by Al Qaida make up the smallest enemy group but
are the most lethal and pose the most immediate threat because (1) they are responsible for the
most dramatic atrocities, which kill the most people and function as a recruiting tool for
further terrorism and (2) they espouse the extreme goals of Osama Bin Laden - chaos in Iraq
which will allow them to establish a base for toppling Iraq's neighbors and launching attacks
outside the region and against the U.S. homeland.
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> The terrorists have identified Iraq as central to their global aspirations. For that reason,
terrorists and extremists from all parts of the Middle East and North Africa have found
their way to Iraq and made common cause with indigenous religious extremists and former
members of Saddam's regime. This group cannot be won over and must be defeated -
killed or captured - through sustained counterterrorism operations.
- There are other elements that threaten the democratic process in Iraq, including criminals and
Shi'a religious extremists, but we judge that such elements can be handled by Iraqi forces
alone and/or assimilated into the political process in the short term.
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