Chapter Chapter 3
Section Hurricane Season Forecast
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Hurricane Season Forecast
Hurricane Season:
The official Atlantic hurricane season takes place each year between June 1 and November 30, with peak hurricane activity generally occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
In an average year, ten tropical storms develop in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or Atlantic Ocean; six of these storms become hurricanes. In a typical three-year span, five hurricanes hit the United States mainland; two are designated major (Category 3 – 5) hurricanes. The southeastern United States is the region most vulnerable to a hurricane strike. The States most likely to be hit by a major hurricane are Florida, Texas, and Louisiana.
--National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hurricanes: Unleashing Nature’s Fury and U.S. Mainland Hurricane Strikes by State
On May 16, 2005, Brigadier General David L. Johnson (ret.), Director of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Weather Service (NWS), released the 2005 Atlantic hurricane outlook to kick off National Hurricane Preparedness Week.In its report, NOAA assessed a 70 percent chance of an above-average hurricane season, predicting twelve to fifteen Atlantic tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes and three to five of those becoming major hurricanes (equivalent to Categories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). 2 NOAA also noted that the previous year had been “extremely active,” with fifteen Atlantic tropical storms, including nine that developed into hurricanes.3 That same day, Max Mayfield, Director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), cautioned, " l ast year’s hurricane season provided a reminder that planning and preparation for a hurricane do make a difference. Residents in hurricane vulnerable areas who had a plan, and took individual responsibility for acting on those plans, faired sic far better than those who did not."4
The first two months of the 2005 hurricane season confirmed NOAA’s predictions, with a record seven Atlantic tropical storms developing in June and July.5 Two of these storms developed into major hurricanes, including Hurricane Dennis, "an unusually strong July major hurricane that left a trail of destruction from the Caribbean Sea to the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico."6 Dennis prompted mandatory evacuations in the lower Florida Keys and major disaster declarations in Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi.7 Louisiana Governor Blanco declared a state of emergency.8 While Cuba ultimately received the worst of the damage inflicted by Dennis, the NHC still estimated U.S. damages in excess of two billion dollars.9
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
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Category Winds
1 74 - 95 mph
2 96 - 110 mph
3 111 - 130 mph
4 131 - 155 mph
5 Greater than 155 mph
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* To be a Tropical Storm, winds must be between 39-73 mph.
On August 2, 2005, NOAA released an updated 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook that projected the formation of an additional eleven to fourteen tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes. Based on the developments in June and July, NOAA revised its assessment to a “95 to 100 percent” chance of an above-normal 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season.It reported that “the atmospheric and oceanic conditions favoring hurricane formation that were predicted in May are now in place. These conditions, combined with the high levels of activity already seen, make an above-normal season nearly certain.”Moreover, while there already had been “considerable early season activity,” NOAA emphasized that the next three months constituted the peak of hurricane season.10 NHC Director Mayfield explained, “Knowing precisely where a hurricane will strike and at what intensity cannot be determined even a few days in advance.”He urged that “residents and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should embrace hurricane preparedness efforts and should be ready well before a tropical storm or hurricane watch is posted.”11 With four more months remaining in hurricane season, the NOAA outlook proved an ominous forecast.
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