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 Title Kentucky v. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

 Argued January 7, 2005                 Decided February 18, 2005

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 United States Court of Appeals

          FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT


Argued January 7, 2005              Decided February 18, 2005

                         No. 03-1092

 PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF

                         KENTUCKY,

                         PETITIONER

                               v.

      FEDERAL  ENERGY  REGULATORY       COMMISSION,

                         RESPONDENT

      MIDWEST  ISO     TRANSMISSION  OWNERS, ET AL.,

                        INTERVENORS

                      Consolidated with

                           03-1097

          On Petitions for Review of Orders of the

          Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

   David E. Pomper argued the cause for petitioners.  With

him on the briefs were Thomas C. Trauger, David

D'Alessandro, John E. McCaffrey, Richard G. Raff, Robert A.

Weishaar, Jr., and Jeffrey L. Landsman.


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     Beth G. Pacella, Attorney, Federal Energy Regulatory

Commission, argued the cause for respondent.  With her on the

brief was Cynthia A. Marlette, General Counsel.

     Michael E. Small, Paul M. Flynn, and Wendy N. Reed were

on the brief for intervenors in support of respondent.

     Before: RANDOLPH, TATEL, and ROBERTS, Circuit Judges.

     Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge ROBERTS.

     ROBERTS,  Circuit Judge: This petition arises out of a

proceeding before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

to set rates for the transmission of electricity over lines operated

by a regional transmission organization.  Over a century ago, the

first Justice Harlan noted that regulated rates must ensure just

compensation, but confessed that " h ow such compensation

may be ascertained, and what are the necessary elements in such

an inquiry, will always be an embarrassing question."  Smyth v.

Ames, 169 U.S. 466, 546 (1898) (quoted in Duquesne Light Co.

v. Barasch, 488 U.S. 299, 308 (1989)).  For our part, we have

recognized that "agency ratemaking is far from an exact sci-

ence," Time Warner Entm't Co. v. FCC, 56 F.3d 151, 163 (D.C.

Cir. 1995), and that it involves "complex industry analyses,"

Ass'n of Oil Pipe Lines v. FERC, 83 F.3d 1424, 1431 (D.C. Cir.

1996), and " i ssues of rate design that  are fairly technical,"

Town of Norwood v. FERC, 962 F.2d 20, 22 (D.C. Cir. 1992).

For these reasons, and because ratemaking "involves policy

determinations in which the agency is acknowledged to have

expertise, our review thereof is particularly deferential."  Time

Warner, 56 F.3d at 163 (internal quotation marks omitted).

     Given the deferential standard, we uphold FERC's decisions

to calculate the pertinent rate of return on equity in this case by

reference to a particular "proxy group" of publicly-traded

companies, and to base the rate of return on the midpoint, rather

than the median or mean, of the rates in that group.  But FERC

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is entitled to deference only if it plays fair, and we conclude that

the Commission failed to give adequate notice that it would add

50 basis points to the rate of return generated by its calculations,

to encourage participation in regional transmission organiza-

tions.  We accordingly grant the petition in part.

                                  I.

     Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc.

(MISO) is a regional transmission organization (RTO) -- a

company that combines multiple power grids into a single

transmission system.  In recent years, FERC has promoted the

formation of RTOs as a means of increasing competition and

driving down the price of electricity.  According to the Commis-

sion, RTOs provide a large and stable transmission system that

reduces regional pricing disparities and creates an efficient

market for new power generators.           See generally Regional

Transmission Organizations, Order No. 2000, 65 Fed. Reg. 809

(Dec. 20, 1999); Order No. 2000­A, 65 Fed. Reg. 12,088 (Feb.

25, 2000).  MISO, the first such organization in the nation, came

into being when a series of midwestern utilities placed their

grids under its centralized control.  See Midwest ISO Transmis-

sion Owners, Inc. v. FERC, 373 F.3d 1361, 1365 (D.C. Cir.

2004).

     The rates charged by electric utilities such as MISO are

regulated by FERC to ensure that they are just and reasonable,

and not unduly discriminatory.  See 16 U.S.C. §§ 824d, 824e.

Utilities themselves initiate the ratemaking process by submit-

ting proposals to the Commission, but FERC retains authority to

modify such proposals to ensure compliance with the statutory

standards.  Id. §§ 824d(c)-(d), 824e(a).

     A major component of the rates charged by MISO is the

return on equity (ROE) paid to its member utilities.  This rate

compensates the utilities for the capital cost of the grids they

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placed under MISO's control.          FERC derives the rate by

estimating the annual return an equity investor in the utility

would expect on such capital, had the utility continued to operate

the grid outside the RTO.  See generally Canadian Ass'n of

Petroleum Producers v. FERC, 254 F.3d 289, 293­94 (D.C. Cir.

2001).  Calculating this rate would be relatively easy if a utility's

interest in its grid -- its business as a transmission owner (TO)

-- were publicly traded, but "there are no publicly traded

independent pure electric transmission companies."           MISO

Initial Decision, 99 FERC ¶ 63,011, 65,040 (2002).              The

Commission must therefore resort to more roundabout estima-

tions.

     In December 2001, MISO and certain of its member TOs

petitioned the Commission to increase the ROE component of

MISO's charges from a previously approved level of 10.5

percent to 13 percent.  The Commission set the matter for

hearing, at which all interested parties were allowed to present

evidence.  Among those availing themselves of this opportunity

were the petitioners in this case -- the Public Service Commis-

sion of the Commonwealth of Kentucky (PSCKY) and a group

of private consumers and municipal entities (the Intervenor

Group) -- who appeared on behalf of ratepayers and argued

against any rate increase or, in any event, for a more modest

one.1  At the hearing, an administrative law judge selected a

proxy group of public companies to use in estimating the

appropriate return on equity for the MISO TOs.  The judge chose

a group consisting of the parent companies of certain MISO TOs

themselves -- which, unlike the transmission-owning subsidiar-

     1 The Intervenor Group should not be confused with the

intervenors in this appeal -- the MISO TOs -- who appear in support

of the Commission.  We use the label "Intervenor Group" because that

is what was used in the orders under review, and because the parties

themselves continue to use that shorthand before us.

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ies, are publicly traded.     The judge rejected several other

proposals, including one submitted by the Intervenor Group.  Id.

at 65,038­42.

    Once she had made her choice, the judge sought to extract

a single ROE value, representative of the proxy group as a

whole, to be applied to all the MISO TOs.  She chose the

midpoint of the range -- the average of the highest and lowest

data points -- which yielded a return of 12.38 percent.  She

rejected the recommendation of FERC staff to use the mean --

the average of all values in the proxy group (11.74 percent) --

as well as the Intervenor Group's proposal to use the median --

the middle data point in the group (11.85 percent).           Id. at

65,047­52.  The judge also rejected competing pleas from MISO

and the Intervenor Group to derive ROE using only part of the

proxy range, such as the top or bottom half.  Id.

    FERC affirmed the ALJ's choice of the proxy group and her

use of the midpoint.  Speaking to the latter, the Commission

noted that its electrical industry precedents -- unlike its oil and

gas cases -- had relied on the midpoint as a measure of central

tendency.  The Commission, however, also decided sua sponte

to increase the final return by 50 basis points, to 12.88 percent,

as an incentive for companies to join a regional transmission

organization.    MISO Order Affirming Initial Decision, 100

FERC ¶ 61,292, 62,313­15 (2002).  FERC explained that it

"will be clarifying this  incentive rate policy in the near future."

Id. at 62,315.  Several months later, the Commission indeed

issued a proposal to give "any entity that transfers operational

control of transmission facilities to a Commission-approved

RTO . . . an incentive adder of 50 basis points on its ROE for all

such facilities transferred."     Proposed Pricing Policy for

Efficient Operation and Expansion of Transmission Grid, 102

FERC ¶ 61,032, 61,065 (2003).

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     In the meantime, petitioners sought rehearing of FERC's

order, which the Commission denied.  Besides affirming its

earlier findings, FERC rejected petitioners' contention that they

had not been given sufficient notice of the possibility of an

incentive-based adder.  FERC explained that petitioners should

have been aware of the possibility of such an adder, given the

Commission's statutory power to amend proposals to ensure just

and reasonable rates.  FERC also noted that the final value of

12.88 percent was less than the 13 percent initially requested by

MISO, and thus presumably within the range of petitioners'

expectations at the outset of the proceedings.  See MISO Order

Denying Rehearing, 102 FERC ¶ 61,143, 61,395 (2003).

     Petitioners then sought review in this court, but the Com-

mission moved for a voluntary remand to allow further consider-

ation of the rate of return.  On remand, the Commission main-

tained its position, but offered a different rationale for the use of

the midpoint in this case.  FERC explained that the question here

"is not what constitutes the best overall method for determining

ROE generically (i.e. the midpoint versus the median or mean)."

MISO Order on Remand, 106 FERC ¶ 61,302, 62,192 (2004).

Rather, the Commission observed that under the "unique . . .

circumstances" of this case, in which the chosen value will apply

"to a diverse group of companies," the midpoint provides the

best measure because it emphasizes the endpoints of the proxy

group range, ensuring that outlier as well as average TOs receive

just and fair compensation.  Id. at 62,192­93.  The Commission

also found that the proxy group was not too skewed to permit a

midpoint analysis.  Id. at 62,193.

     PSCKY and the Intervenor Group now seek review of the

FERC orders, challenging the selection of the proxy group, the

use of the midpoint, and the incentive-based adder.

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                                 II.


     The "arbitrary and capricious" standard of the Administra-

tive  Procedure Act governs our review.           See 5 U.S.C.

§ 706(2)(A).  Under this standard, FERC must consider relevant

data and "articulate a rational connection between the facts

found and the choices made."           Williston Basin Interstate

Pipeline Co. v. FERC, 165 F.3d 54, 60 (D.C. Cir. 1999) (cita-

tions omitted).  The Commission must also respond meaning-

fully to the arguments raised before it.  See Canadian Ass'n of

Petroleum Producers, 254 F.3d at 299.  The Commission's

factual findings are conclusive if supported by substantial

evidence.  See 16 U.S.C. § 825l(b).

     A.  Petitioners first question the proxy group chosen to

represent the MISO TOs' expected return on equity.  They assert

that the ALJ improperly dismissed the Intervenor Group's

proposal, which would have considered (and heavily weighted)

four generation-divested electric utilities in addition to the

companies ultimately chosen.        They also maintain that the

Commission failed to engage their petition on this issue, and

erroneously saddled them with the burden of proof in the group

selection process.  We find these arguments unavailing.

     The judge chose a group submitted by MISO, consisting of

the publicly-owned parent companies of the TOs themselves.

She reasoned that " t his is the best proxy group since it involves

companies that are currently in the MISO; the group includes

comparable risk companies, similar in business profiles and

size."  Initial Decision, 99 FERC at 65,041.  She also relied on

a prior FERC decision that approved a proxy group in part

because that group contained parent companies of the utility

whose rates were being set.  Id. (citing Southern California

Edison, 92 FERC ¶ 61,070 (2000)).             She dismissed the

Intervenor Group's proposal because "it consisted of distribution

companies, not transmission companies."  Id. at 65,042.  FERC

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summarily affirmed these findings.  Order Affirming Initial

Decision, 100 FERC at 62,312.

     Petitioners provide us with insufficient reason for overturn-

ing the selection of the proxy group.  At the hearing before the

ALJ, the Intervenor Group's own expert conceded that MISO's

proposal was one of "the two most appropriate groups to use in

establishing the range" and that " t he TOs or their parent

companies have rates at issue in this proceeding and are there-

fore an appropriate group to use as a reasonable starting point."

Testimony of J. Bertram Solomon at 67.  On appeal, petitioners

note that the parents' businesses extend well beyond transmis-

sion, and maintain that the judge underestimated the transmis-

sion component of the additional companies in their own

proposal.

     Giventhedeferential standard of review, this is just nibbling

at the margins.  The Supreme Court explained long ago that

ratemaking is a pragmatic exercise, see FPC v. Hope Natural

Gas Co., 320 U.S. 591, 602 (1944), and more than second-

guessing close judgment calls is required to show that a rate

order is arbitrary and capricious.  Id.  FERC chose reasonably

from the options presented, based on the testimony offered and

the Commission's own precedent.

     Petitioners' remaining challenges to the proxy group also

fall short of the mark.  Their contention that FERC failed to

engage their petition finds no support in our case law.  While we

have held that FERC may not ignore an argument presented to

it, our cases addressed situations where neither the Commission

nor an ALJ addressed the issue.  See Canadian Ass'n of Petro-

leum Producers, 254 F.3d at 298­99; NorAm Gas Transmission

Co. v. FERC, 148 F.3d 1158, 1165 (D.C. Cir. 1999).  Here, by

contrast, FERC reviewed the ALJ's extensive discussion of

proxy groups and expressly adopted her rejection of petitioners'

proposal.  See Order Affirming Initial Decision, 100 FERC at

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62,312 ("For the reasons set forth in the Initial Decisions, we

find that the Intervenor Group has failed to set forth convincing

evidence regarding its proposal .").

     As for the burden of proof, petitioners rely on a handful of

isolated statements in the rulings under review.  At one point in

her decision, the judge noted that the Intervenor Group's witness

did not "prove " that the companies in its proposal had risks

comparable to the TOs.  Initial Decision, 99 FERC at 65,042.

In affirming the ALJ, the Commission observed that the

Intervenor Group "has not demonstrated that the chosen proxy

group is unrepresentative," and "has failed to set forth convinc-

ing evidence" of the superiority of their own proposal.  Order

Affirming Initial Decision, 100 FERC at 62,312.  Based on these

statements, petitioners argue that FERC improperly saddled

them with the burden of proving the validity of the rate increase

at issue -- a burden statutorily assigned to the proponent of the

increase, in this case MISO.  See 16 U.S.C. 824d(e) ("the burden

of proof to show that the increased rate or charge is just and

reasonable shall be upon the public utility").

     In proceedings before the ALJ, however, MISO expressly

assumed the burden of justifying the proposed rate increase.

Prehearing Conference at 25 ("PRESIDING JUDGE: And you

have the burden of proof, don't you?  MR. SMALL counsel for

MISO : Yes, your Honor . . . .").  In selecting MISO's proposal,

the judge explained that she found it "consistent with Commis-

sion precedent," and described the Intervenor Group's alterna-

tive as "more speculative and statistically less reliable."  Initial

Decision, 99 FERC at 65,042.  MISO acknowledged and carried

its burden of proof before the ALJ.  As for the statements in

FERC's order, these are best read as merely affirming the

reasonableness of the judge's decision.  See Town of Norwood,

962 F.2d at 26 (interpreting similar phrasing as "a rather

perfunctory restatement of the Commission's finding . . . and not

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an indication that the FERC improperly shifted the burden of

proof to the petitioner").

     B.  PSCKY and the Intervenor Group next challenge the

Commission's use of the midpoint.  They question the cogency

of FERC's reasoning in general, and dispute its application on

the facts of this case.  They also point to language in FERC's

order on remand suggesting that the Commission chose the

midpoint simply because it yielded the highest rate of return.

     In the order on remand the Commission stepped back from

its prior reliance on electrical industry precedents, and even

acknowledged that the median, and not the midpoint, may be

"the most refined measure of central tendency."  Order on

Remand, 106 FERC at 62,192.  The Commission rested its use

of the midpoint on a wholly different ground: it distinguished

between "cases in which a ROE is set for one gas pipeline or

electric utility" and cases where "applicants proposed setting a

single ROE for across-the-board application."  Id.  In the latter

situation, where "the ROE will apply to a diverse set of compa-

nies," FERC reasoned that the range of results becomes as

important as the central value.  Id.  The midpoint -- unlike the

other measures of central tendency -- "fully considers that

range," because it is derived directly from the endpoints of the

range.  Id.

     This justification provides a reasoned approach that lends

itself to consistent application over a series of cases.  While

petitioners highlight the shortcomings of the Commission's

method, they fail to debunk its fundamental premises.  For

instance, petitioners are correct in noting that all measures of

central tendency "consider" the entire proxy group range, in the

sense that all are influenced -- at least indirectly -- by each data

point in the range.  Pet. Br. at 23.  But only the midpoint

emphasizes that range, as it is equally placed between the top

and bottom values.  Likewise, petitioners rightly suggest that

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using the midpoint undermines the statistical sampling of the

proxy group process, id. at 28­30, as only the mean places equal

weight on every point in a sample.  But the Commission made

clear that it was less interested in particular data points than in

the full range covered by the group.

     Petitioners' more technical challenges fare no better.  First,

they contend that the Commission erred in calculating the

midpoint of a range containing two values for each company --

a high and a low estimate -- because FERC meant to "fully

consider" the range of companies in the proxy group, and high

or low estimates by themselves do not reflect a company's ROE

without considering the corresponding low or high estimate.

Pet. Br. at 26­27.  The Commission's use of a high estimate to

mark the high end for its midpoint calculation was, however,

balanced to some extent by its use of a low estimate to mark the

low end.  It is true that this balance is imperfect, particularly on

this record, where the company whose high estimate marks the

high end also had a low estimate among the lowest values in the

range.  But it is certainly consistent with FERC's rationale to

calculate the midpoint of the entire range, rather than -- as

petitioners now seem to suggest -- averaging each company's

high and low estimates and then determining the midpoint of

that narrower range.  See Pet. Br. at 27.  At any rate, no such

alternative proposal was ever presented to the Commission.

     Second, petitioners maintain that the data in this case were

too skewed for a midpoint analysis.  Pet. Br. at 33­37.  This too

is a matter squarely within the Commission's expertise.  The

proxy group clearly has some skew -- otherwise all measures of

central tendency would have produced the same result -- but

this is part of the reason FERC used the midpoint in the first

place.  FERC acknowledged that some distributions are too

skewed for such an analysis, but the Commission evaluated the

distortion here and found it not to be excessive.  Order on

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Remand, 106 FERC at 62,193; compare Northwest Pipeline

Corp., 99 FERC ¶ 61,305 (2002) (employing a similar method

for evaluating skew).  As the Commission explained, this is not

a case where one end-point is considerably out of line with the

rest of the range; ratemaking is not an "exact science," Time

Warner, 56 F.3d at 163, and FERC was not required to adopt

petitioners' mathematical model for determining when some

skew becomes too much skew.

     All this notwithstanding, the order on remand does contain

language clouding the clarity of FERC's midpoint rationale.  In

a footnote, the Commission observes that:

     The results of our proxy group yielded a midpoint of 12.38,

     a median of 11.85, and a mean of 11.74.  Relying on the

     median or mean in this case would result in an unreasonably

     low ROE in light of the high end values in the proxy group

     and could substantially under-compensate those utilities at

     the upper end of the range.

106 FERC at 62,192 n.14.  Elsewhere, FERC notes that "the

midpoint does not have as deleterious an effect as the median on

those MISO  TOs whose returns are higher than what we allow

for MISO  TOs here," and that this "offers additional incentive

for such companies to join RTOs."  Id. at 62,193­94.  According

to petitioners, these passages indicate that FERC chose the

midpoint simply because it yielded the highest result.

     If FERC's orders premised a policy of using the midpoint on

an effort to obtain the highest rate of return, the orders could not

withstand APA review.  This is because there would be no

logical connection between the rationale and the result: nothing

about the midpoint ensures it will be higher than the median or

the mean in any particular case.  Of course, FERC could have

explained that it would always choose the measure that yields

the highest result, and tried to defend that rationale here.  But the

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Commission cannot justify a commitment to the midpoint on the

ground that it produced the highest return, because that is pure

happenstance.

     We think the most reasonable reading of FERC's order on

remand as a whole is that it selected the midpoint because the

rate of return would apply to a diverse group of companies, and

that the language petitioners point to simply reflects FERC's

view that the resulting rate gave it confidence that it was not

undercompensating MISO TOs.  The bulk of the order sets forth

the "diverse companies" rationale.        The contrary language

appears in a footnote and a single paragraph near the end of the

opinion.  The Commission emphasized the rate's across-the-

board applicability to MISO TOs -- rather than the greater value

of the midpoint -- in both its brief and at oral argument.  In light

of all this, we read the order as resting on its principal rationale.

Should the Commission elect to abandon that rationale to rely on

a higher median or mean in the next case involving applicability

of the chosen rate to several companies, it will have to justify its

departure from the precedent established by this case.

     C.  Finally, PSCKY and the Intervenor Group argue that

FERC arbitrarily adopted the 50-point premium, and that the

Commission violated due process by announcing its decision sua

sponte without prior notice to the parties.  We focus on the latter

claim.

     The Due Process Clause and the APA require that an agency

setting a matter for hearing provide parties "with adequate notice

of the issues that would be considered, and ultimately resolved,

at that hearing."     Williston, 165 F.3d at 63; see 5 U.S.C.

§ 554(b)(3).  This requirement ensures the parties' right to

present rebuttal evidence on all maters decided at the hearing.

See Bowman Transp., Inc. v. Arkansas-Best Freight Sys., Inc.,

419 U.S. 281, 288 n.4 (1974); Hatch v. FERC, 654 F.2d 825,

835 (D.C. Cir. 1981); Hill v. FPC, 335 F.2d 355, 363 (5th Cir.

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1964).  In addition, the Federal Power Act authorizes FERC to

approve rate increases only "after full hearings" -- a require-

ment that itself "unquestionably imposes the duty to give

adequate notice of the subject to which the orders pertain."  16

U.S.C. § 824d(e); City of Winnfield v. FERC, 744 F.2d 871, 876

(D.C. Cir. 1984).

     Here, the Commission failed to place the parties on notice

that its post-hearing order would contemplate an incentive-based

premium for the MISO TOs.  When MISO and its TOs first filed

for the subject rate increase, they sought an incentive adder of

100 basis points, but FERC declined to consider such "innova-

tive ratemaking proposals," limiting the subject matter of the

hearing to "ROE rates that essentially provide for appropriate

cost-recovery."  Order Accepting in Part and Rejecting in Part

Proposed Tariff Changes and Establishing Hearing Procedures,

98 FERC ¶ 61,064, 61,165 (2002).  The ALJ refused to consider

premium-related proposals, noting "that establishing an incen-

tive based ROE seems to be outside the scope of this proceed-

ing."  Initial Order, 99 FERC at 65,052.  As a result, the record

compiled at the hearing contained no evidence on the need for

-- or appropriate size of -- such a premium.

     On appeal, FERC maintains that it gave petitioners all the

process they were due by considering their requests for rehear-

ing, which contained extensive challenges to the premium.

FERC Br. at 47; see PSCKY Req. for Reh'g at 9­14; Intervenor

Group Req. for Reh'g at 41­49.          Considering petitioners'

arguments, however, is not the same thing as allowing them to

present evidence on the issue -- as at least one of the petitioners

pointed out to the Commission.  See PSCKY Req. for Reh'g at

10 ("the parties were not given the opportunity to present

evidence, or refute the use of such innovative rate making

policy"); see also Williston, 165 F.3d at 63­64 (granting petition

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to review based on insufficient notice and lack of substantial

evidence).

      Nor did FERC obviate the need for such a presentation by

relying, in the order denying rehearing, on its proposed policy to

reward any entity that joins an RTO with a bonus of 50 basis

points.  The Commission issued that proposal after its sua

sponte order and after the filing deadline for rehearing requests

in MISO's case.  Moreover, the proposed policy is just that --

it is not a rule binding on the public, or even on the agency itself.

See Proposed Pricing Policy, 102 FERC at 61,066­67 (inviting

public comment and holding off implementation until the

issuance of a final policy statement).  As such, it plainly cannot

govern the outcome of this case.

      Likewise, FERC's assertion that petitioners should have

been aware that it always possesses the power to modify rate

proposals to ensure that they meet statutory standards plainly

proves too much; FERC's power to take such action does not

carry with it the authority to exercise such power without

adequate notice of the basis for doing so.

      In sum, FERC failed to place petitioners on notice that it

would consider an incentive-based premium, and ultimately

applied the adder in MISO's case without considering any record

evidence.  In so doing, FERC denied petitioners -- and the other

parties to the proceeding, for that matter -- a chance to present

their side of the case.  We express no view on petitioners'

substantive challenges to the incentive-based adder, but grant the

petition because FERC failed to provide adequate notice that it

would consider such an element in assessing the pending rate

proposal.  In all other respects, we affirm the Commission.

                                 15


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